Brexit modelling implications?

[amsvkng]

Hiya all

I Live in Europe and as everybody else count on deliveries to feed my stash but are there any modelling brands manufactured in the UK that might become considerably more expensive if there is a crash out Brexit? Thought it would be prudent to check if it is something?

Another question for all the Brits in the group, whatever your stance on the B-word is. How will it affect the modelling world? Does anybody know what the WTO tariffs are on plastic models?


/Karim

[NorthernModeller]

I feel that after brexit (should it be a No deal) that the import tariffs will be higher and the prices of most of what we use and buy will increase significantly. It's a shame but HOPEFULLY with other countries wanting to trade it COULD mean that its not a permanent or very long term issue.

[Twokidsnosleep]

Interesting how it all plays out
I am hoping for the best and commerce will eventually work itself out

[Kevthemodeller]

Its a total mess

We've got politicians who've been telling people pretty much lies about what we (the UK) will get out of leaving and what the EU costs us plus the immigration angle. Most of these are already extremely rich in their own right and have nothing to fear when our economy takes a hit as we leave and until it picks back up, if it ever picks back up. No one actually knows how bad but all the major financial reports say it will be negative, what they can't agree on is by how much. In the mean time these individuals and who they represent want deregulation, so they can operate in a fashion that suits them, in the process they will make a fortune.

They've tapped into peoples fears, mainly immigration (which is out of control but which those mentioned above wanted as a means of cheap labour) and how much money we pay to belong to the EU. Yes it's not perfect (nothing is) but because we've messed about on the fringes for years we've not taken a leading role although we're, I think the second biggest economy in EU (club) and because of that we've not had key input into policy such as immigration, free movement and alike. So it's not surprising it perhaps works better for those who are fully in the club! Although business on the whole likes the club and it's free trade movement etc.

Like any club, to belong you've got to be a member and that usually means you've got to pay a membership fee. What these politicians are telling people and trying to do and failing is, we can leave the club but still cherry pick what we will use and enjoy. In very simplistic terms they want to leave the golf club but still use the greens and the cheap bar! The club doesn't give you anything when you leave, why should they, they are trying to hold them to ransom by saying it will hurt you too, so give us what we want so it wont hurt as much! That is the whole basis of the Brexit deal leverage, its basically blackmail.

It's not going to happen, if it does other members will not want to pay either and the EU will fold. It's a complete mess one which has pretty much torn the UK in half and divided them by age (over 50's) it would also seem. If we crash out it will be a disaster short/mid term which depending on which financial forecast you read, could last many years and never reach our current or non leave projections. What I think is worse is those people who voted to leave based on what they was told, aren't going to get what they voted for, at least not for many years. The further twist here is it's very possible many of them will have died before it does! I also think is very possible they will be the hardest hit when you consider the age split as investments/pensions could well take a hit. Many who think they're safe could well end up losing their jobs as many companies will scale back or even pull out of the UK, it's already happening! It's very possible we'll drop into a recession, housing market (which is already slowing or dropping in certain areas) will start dropping significantly and all the other issues that go with recession. Many pro Brexit are currently saying "They told us the markets would crash, job losses etc, nothing has happened" Quite right that's because nothing has happened.... yet! It's a bit like 1939 or what is referred to as the "Phoney War" but when it did start boy did it and all those it will over before Christmas seem to melt away!

As for modelling which I believe just about everything is imported, with JIT because hardly anyone whats to hold stock or certainly not much. The prices will I've no doubt rise significantly and things will become hard to get short term. What's another slap in the face is on Fri Japan enters the EU trade market Here which should mean we can buy direct from Japan without import tax and just postage. We all know a lot of good modelling items and kits are easily found in Japan for a lot less even half price. This will not just be modelling items anything....

As a rule I'm not given to commenting political issues, but I like many, the silent majority I'm so feed up with all the lies, party politics. You can chop this up how you like, twist it this way and that but it doesn't change the facts. We're a matter of weeks away from leaving the worlds biggest free trade market, we've done zero deals with anyone, why because they really believe the blackmail would/will work, you couldn't make it up as I said it's a total mess!

[Gary30]

I agree with all of the above.

What really gets to me is the fact we've had two years to sort something out and here we are a few weeks away and we don't have a deal at all.

We have effectively wasted two years of negotiations.

I'm hoping with all the hope I can muster that the reality will be way less impacting than the scaremongers would have you believe, but this is a lot different than the millennium bug if anyone remembers that faff that people keep drawing comparisons with.

PS this site WAS my Brexit free haven of tranquillity, but even ISM is not safe it seems

[amsvkng]

Wow Kev that is indeed a cluster f**k of a situation, honestly I am Swedish living in the Netherlands and I am watching all of this happening with absolute gobsmacked as I cannot "believe" (a word that with Brexit has lost most of it's meaning, and should from now on only be applied to religion). Also what I do not understand is how UK is saying that EU needs them more than UK needs them, but I don't see it. Not to be insulting to UK or Brits but in the last 6 months I have had at least 3 headhunters trying to recruit me to move to the UK, and when I tell them that there is no way I am moving to the UK with all the nonsense going on, one told me that this is the response of 99.9% of EU citizens. I have received even more job offers from UK companies moving across the channel to NL trying to fill their offices before the sh*t hits the fan.

I was thinking to order some of the Ultimate modelling ISM brand before because I thought they were based out of UK, even if they probably are not manufactured in the UK?

/Karim

[amsvkng]

I agree with all of the above.

What really gets to me is the fact we've had two years to sort something out and here we are a few weeks away and we don't have a deal at all.

We have effectively wasted two years of negotiations.

I'm hoping with all the hope I can muster that the reality will be way less impacting than the scaremongers would have you believe, but this is a lot different than the millennium bug if anyone remembers that faff that people keep drawing comparisons with.

PS this site WAS my Brexit free haven of tranquillity, but even ISM is not safe it seems

I am really sorry to have ruined your Brexit safe space unfortunately I think it is going to affect EVERYTHING. I really hope that your right but I know the Dutch government are already starting implementation of their No deal Brexit plans for the Rotterdam harbor, they are planning to re-task it to become energy storage for all the wind energy being generated in the North Sea.

I remember working on the Millennial bug and I can tell you we were working on this years out before the shift and even then when the shift occurred we were all on stand-by with our fingers crossed. Never seen so many atheists praying to every deity under the sun. If as many people had worked as hard to resolve brexit as did to resolve the millennium bug I don't think I would be so worried either.

[SteelScooter]

It is a mess but I am not too worried, it will be ok in the end. It's not WWII or anything. We persevere it is what we do. On the plus side my stash value might go up.